The Ecological Risks of Avian Influenza Virus Spread via Migratory Birds: A Case Study at Poyang Lake, China

-The highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus (here after H5N1) still produces devastating effects in humans, poultries and wild birds. Migratory birds were thought to play a role in the long-distance spread of H5N1. This study identified 7 high-risk species and 18 potential high-risk species that may transmit H5N1 into Poyang Lake and determined four resident bird species as “bridge species” that may disperse H5N1 around the lake. The high-risk species were selected according to the following behavioral and ecological factors: migratory status, abundance, degree of mixing of species and gregariousness, migration from or stopovers at epidemic areas, and previous infection status. Among the 25 high-risk and potential high-risk species, 22 belonged to the orders Anseriformes (n = 11) and Charadriiformes (n = 11). The risk of intra-species transmission was high for Anseriformes (ducks and geese) and Charadriiformes birds, and was relatively low for Gruiformes and Ciconiiformes birds. This study can be informative and useful in the surveillance of avian influenza epidemics at breeding, stopover, and wintering sites other than Poyang Lake along the East Asian-Australian Flyway.